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Experts from the University of Edinburgh produced a modelling study entitled ‘High energy and fertiliser prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment’, in which they concluded that rising energy and fertilizer prices will have the greatest impact on food security in the coming decades, even greater than the disruption of the supply chain due to the war in Ukraine. The resulting simulations suggest that the combined impact of export restrictions, increased energy costs and high fertilizer prices in mid-2022 could cause food prices to rise by up to 81% in 2023 compared to 2021. Halting exports from Russia and Ukraine would add to this growth contributed 2.6%, while energy and fertilizer prices would contribute about 74%. The scientists add that increasing the price of fertilizers will reduce their use by farmers, which will lead to the need to expand the area of agricultural land in Europe.
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Last week, representatives of the European Commission said that they are monitoring the effects of supporting grain exports from Ukraine through solidarity lanes on countries neighbouring Ukraine. The European Commission's deputy director-general for agriculture and rural development, Michael Scannell, insists that exports through the corridors have no negative impact on the EU's single market. However, measures are needed to improve logistics, including better road, rail and freight links to help transport grain over greater distances, as well as improved storage facilities in the countries concerned. After the start of aid to Ukraine through the export of agricultural goods by all available routes, the farmers of the countries directly adjacent to Ukraine repeatedly warned the European Commission about the large amount of grain that gets stuck in border areas and destabilizes local markets. According to representatives of Romanian farmers, the situation became so unbearable in autumn 2022 that it led to bankruptcies of local Romanian farmers.
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During the final weeks of 2022, the European Commission completed the approval process of draft national CAP strategic plans, and after a two-year transition period, the new rules entered into force on 01/01/2023. It should remain in force at least until the end of 2027. The new CAP introduces several changes, including a new implementation mechanism, the introduction of eco-schemes and adjustments to the rules of the GAECs. It also aims at greater support for organic farming, young and small farmers. The Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development, Janusz Wojciechowski, already stated in December 2022 that he is interested in submitting a proposal for a new CAP after 2027 by mid-2024, which would mean that the Communication of the European Commission could be presented at the end of this year.

The German Federal Republic of Brandenburg is preparing a draft of new regional legislation against agricultural land speculation. The aim of the new legislation is to prevent the purchase of agricultural land by non-agricultural companies and thus simplify access to land for Brandenburg farmers. Brandenburg Agriculture Minister Axel Vogel (Greens) plans to present the new legislation in the second quarter of 2023. According to Vogel, it is increasingly difficult for farmers to buy agricultural land for their own farms due to speculators, so it is crucial to prevent the purchase of land by investors from non-agricultural sectors. But this is not the first time that Vogel is trying to introduce similar legislation. He already announced the same intention in 2020, but the proposal was not submitted then.
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The European Commission published on 04/01/2022 a Commission Working Document entitled ‘Drivers of food security’ Among the main drivers, the Commission included biophysical and environmental factors (climate change, environmental pollution, soil health, pests and diseases, biodiversity); research, innovation and technology (production intensity); economic and market factors (trade, speculation in agricultural commodity markets, energy prices, fertilizers, pesticide use, labour availability, agricultural and consumer food prices, income from agricultural activities, access to finance, household income); food chain performance (competing land and crop use, supply chain use, food loss and waste); political and institutional factors (governance and legislative framework, conflict); socio-cultural factors (generational renewal, food choices) and demographic factors (demographic trends).
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